8 Wide Receiver Regression Candidates: Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson Poised for 2023 Breakouts

When it comes to fantasy football, whether it’s the traditional format, daily fantasy, or best-ball leagues, touchdowns play a pivotal role in determining a player’s value and impact on your team. Identifying touchdown scorers is essential, but we must also be cautious not to chase unsustainable performances. Touchdown regression is a real phenomenon in football, and understanding it can give us a strategic advantage when building our teams.

Defining Touchdown Regression

In simple terms, touchdown regression suggests that players who score an unusually high number of touchdowns in one season are likely to see a decrease in their touchdown output in subsequent seasons, while players who underperform in the touchdown department may see an increase in their scoring rate moving forward. This concept revolves around the idea that players will tend to return to their baseline performance levels over time.

Taking a more analytical approach, we can use regression models to establish mathematical relationships between various stats and touchdown totals. Metrics like passing yards, passing air yards, and Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) can provide valuable insights into touchdown production. History shows that as yardage increases, touchdown totals tend to follow suit. Utilizing these data-driven insights can help us identify potential regression candidates for the upcoming season.